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Аналитика / Продуктовые метрики

Basic LTV

A practical LTV estimate multiplies average revenue per user by gross margin and average customer life.

Опубликовано: Обновлено:

АналитикаПродуктовые метрики

Формула

$$\text{LTV} \approx \text{ARPU} \cdot \text{Gross Margin} \cdot L$$
diagram LTV decomposition

Break down LTV by revenue, margin, and average lifetime components.

Each component is a lever for improving unit economics.

Обозначения

$\text{ARPU}$
Average revenue per user per period, currency/period
$\text{Gross Margin}$
Share of revenue retained after direct costs, ratio (0..1)
$L$
Average customer lifetime in periods, periods

Условия применения

  • ARPU and gross margin must be calculated consistently over the same period unit.
  • Lifetime should be measured for same cohort definition.
  • Assume stable retention or explicit weighted average when simplified.

Ограничения

  • Basic formula ignores discount rate and changing margins over time.
  • Short-term ARPU seasonality can bias LTV for long-horizon planning.
  • High variance cohorts need confidence intervals, not only point estimate.

Подробное объяснение

This approximation is suitable for early sizing and quick profitability checks; refine later with cohort-based retention curves.

Как пользоваться формулой

  1. Calculate period ARPU and gross margin from the same dataset.
  2. Estimate average lifetime from retention decay or contract duration.
  3. Multiply as shown and compare with CAC.
  4. Recompute quarterly as product economics evolve.

Историческая справка

LTV became a standard planning metric in startup finance as acquisition budgets scaled.

Пример

If ARPU = 8, gross margin = 0.7, and lifetime = 12 months: LTV = 8 × 0.7 × 12 = 67.2.

Частая ошибка

Using gross revenue instead of retained revenue when margins vary by geography or channel.

Практика

Задачи с решением

Simple annualized LTV

Условие. ARPU = 10, gross margin = 0.8, L = 10 months.

Решение. \text{LTV} = 10 \cdot 0.8 \cdot 10 = 80.

Ответ. 80

Monthly to annual view

Условие. ARPU = 6, gross margin = 0.75, L = 18 months.

Решение. \text{LTV} = 6 \cdot 0.75 \cdot 18 = 81.

Ответ. 81

Дополнительные источники

  • SaaS Metrics Guide, Unit Economics
  • ProfitWell, LTV and Monetization Benchmarks

Связанные формулы

Аналитика

Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC)

$\text{CAC} = \frac{C_{\text{marketing}} + C_{\text{sales}}}{N_{\text{new customers}}}$

CAC shows how much marketing and sales spending is needed to acquire one new customer.

Аналитика

Cohort retention rate

$\text{Retention} = \frac{N_{\text{active at end}}}{N_{\text{cohort start}}}\cdot 100\%$

Retention rate measures what percentage of a cohort remains active after a chosen period.

Аналитика

ARPU

$\text{ARPU} = \frac{R}{\text{MAU}}$

ARPU is average revenue produced per active user in a period.