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Аналитика / Продуктовые метрики

Churn rate

Churn rate shows the proportion of users or customers that stop being active/paying during a period.

Опубликовано: Обновлено:

АналитикаПродуктовые метрики

Формула

$$\text{Churn} = \frac{N_{\text{churned}}}{N_{\text{period start}}}\cdot 100\%$$
trend Churn trend by period

Track churn percentage over time with annotations for product releases and pricing changes.

A falling churn trend often indicates better onboarding, quality, or support performance.

Обозначения

$N_{\text{period start}}$
Customers/users at the beginning of the period, users
$N_{\text{churned}}$
Customers/users who churned during the period, users

Условия применения

  • The churn definition must be clearly defined (inactivity vs paid cancelation vs downgrade).
  • The period duration must be fixed (weekly, monthly, quarterly).
  • Use a clean definition for re-activations: decide whether they re-entered users or remain churned.

Ограничения

  • High inactivity churn may differ from paid-cancel churn and must be interpreted separately.
  • If acquisition is growing rapidly, denominator effects can mask product quality changes.
  • Seasonal behavior can inflate churn in some months and requires normalization.

Подробное объяснение

Churn tracks what percentage of the initial base leaves the system over a fixed period, and is often interpreted alongside retention.

Как пользоваться формулой

  1. Select churn definition (billing cancelation or product inactivity).
  2. Count churned users and denominator users for same period.
  3. Calculate percentage and compare to retention for product diagnostics.
  4. Segment by cohort, geography, and acquisition channel.

Историческая справка

Churn became a standard metric with subscription economics and later spread to mobile retention and freemium models.

Пример

At period start there were 10,000 users, 700 churned by month-end. Churn = 700 / 10,000 × 100\% = 7\%.

Частая ошибка

Using raw net user loss without matching start-of-period denominator can overstate churn changes.

Практика

Задачи с решением

Monthly churn

Условие. Start users: 5,000; churned in month: 275.

Решение. \text{Churn} = 275 / 5{,}000 \cdot 100\% = 5.5\%.

Ответ. 5.5\%

Quarterly churn

Условие. Start users: 8,000; churned in quarter: 1,040.

Решение. \text{Churn} = 1{,}040 / 8{,}000 \cdot 100\% = 13\%.

Ответ. 13\%

Дополнительные источники

  • CARRA, Customer Retention Benchmarking (industry reports)
  • Recurly Metrics Guide, Subscription Churn Definitions

Связанные формулы

Аналитика

Cohort retention rate

$\text{Retention} = \frac{N_{\text{active at end}}}{N_{\text{cohort start}}}\cdot 100\%$

Retention rate measures what percentage of a cohort remains active after a chosen period.

Аналитика

Basic LTV

$\text{LTV} \approx \text{ARPU} \cdot \text{Gross Margin} \cdot L$

A practical LTV estimate multiplies average revenue per user by gross margin and average customer life.

Аналитика

Activation rate

$\text{Activation Rate} = \frac{N_{\text{activated}}}{N_{\text{registered}}}\cdot100\%$

Activation rate tracks how many new registrants reach a predefined value moment.